US Fed Rate Cut On Radar, Will Bitcoin Breakout In August?

2024/07/29By:

Highlight:

  • The FOMC meeting scheduled for July 31 could potentially determine the next major directional shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
  • Insights from CME data reveal a 96% likelihood of no interest rate cuts in August, while there’s an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in September.
  • Historically, Bitcoin’s price has experienced relatively stable movements throughout August. However, the upcoming election calendar may introduce unexpected variables that could bring some surprise.


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After the Bitcoin Conference was successfully held last weekend, this week is crucial and significant for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market as the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 31.  Bitcoin price is showing strength trading nearly 15% up on the monthly chart and moving closer to $70,000.

Will Bitcoin Price Breakout In August?

Despite the anticipation, recent data from 10x Research suggests that it may be too soon to expect a Bitcoin price breakout in August. Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin returns tend to be flat during the month of August and may even decline further in September. However, the research firm also notes that there are several potential tailwinds that could provide downside pressure on the price, including the US election calendar, interest rate policy, and lower inflation.

In particular, the scheduled unlocking of $1 billion worth of tokens in August could put additional pressure on the price. Despite these challenges, 10x Research predicts that Bitcoin dominance will continue to make new highs in this cycle, with significant implications for the market.

While analysts are Predictioning an eventual breakout above $70,000, it is clear that Bitcoin will need further macroeconomic support in the form of lower inflation and projected Fed rate cuts to trigger an upward rally. The upcoming US CPI report on August 20 will be a crucial indicator of the health of the economy and could provide valuable insights into the Fed’s next move.

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Analyst Predicts Gold Silver to Rally Post FOMC Meeting

Investors will be intently focused on the Federal Reserve’s stance regarding interest rate reductions during the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 31. According to CME data, there’s a 96% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next Fed meeting, but there’s also an 85.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Additionally, the Bank of England will reveal its rate decision this week.

10x Research’s data suggests that an August Bitcoin price breakout may be premature, as Bitcoin tends to experience flat returns in August and further declines in September.
However, the research firm notes that tailwinds from the US election calendar, interest rate policies, and lower inflation could contribute to downside pressure, particularly with $1 billion worth of token unlocks scheduled for August. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s dominance is expected to continue setting new highs in this cycle, with significant implications.

While analysts foresee a potential breakout above $70,000, Bitcoin may require additional macroeconomic support, such as another round of lower inflation and anticipated Fed rate cuts, to spark an upward rally. Notably, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released on August 20.

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Step One: go to the BTCC homepage and log in to your BTCC account. If you do not have an account, you need to register first.

Step Two: on the BTCC official homepage, choose “Deposite” > “Fiat Deposit”, and then fund your account.

Step Three: go back to the BTCC official homepage, choose “Futures” -“USDT-M Perpetual Futures Contract”, and find BTC/USD trading pair.

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  • Market Order: users place orders at the best price in the current market to achieve fast trading.
  • Limit Order: Limit orders are a type of order to buy or sell futures at a price more favourable than the market price. When you buy at a price lower than the market price or sell at a price higher than the market price, the order will be in the form of a limit order.
  • SL/TP Order: SL/TP orders are a type of order to buy or sell futures at a price less favourable than the market price. When you buy at a price higher than the market price or sell at a price lower than the market price, the order will be in the form of a SL/TP order.

Step Five: adjust the leverage multiple.

Please keep in mind that operating leverage carries the risk of liquidation. Leverage should be adjusted based on your financial status and risk tolerance.

Step Six: choose the lot size and set the SL/TP price .

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Step Eight: click the buy or sell button, and BTC futures contract order is completed.

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