How do crypto price predictions work?

As a finance enthusiast, I'm curious about how crypto price predictions actually work. Could you elaborate on the methodologies and factors that analysts consider when making such predictions? Do they rely solely on historical data or do they incorporate other variables like market sentiment, regulatory changes, and technological advancements? I'm also interested in knowing how accurate these predictions tend to be and what measures analysts take to mitigate the risk of errors in their forecasts. Could you provide some examples of successful and failed predictions to give us a better understanding of the process?